Shale-driven production growth in the U.S. Northeast and growing demand from the Southeast could turn the nation’s traditional south-to-north and west-to-east pipeline natural gas flows and price spreads upside down, according to Bentek Energy, the natural gas and oil analytics unit of Platts, an energy and commodities information provider.
The 114-page report released at Houston Platts Commodity Week says that more than 1/3 of the U.S. natural gas production increase from 2013 to 2023—or 9.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)—is expected to come from the Utica and Marcellus shale formations in the U.S. Northeast, while nearly half of U.S. demand growth, or 9.4 Bcf/d, is expected to occur in the Southeast over the same period.
“Based on our latest modeling, the U.S. is embarking on a true sea change,” said Rocco Canonica, director of energy analysis for Bentek Energy. “The Northeast is poised to switch from the nation’s largest demand region to a net supply region, and the U.S. Southeast is racing to become a much larger net demand region after being a major supplier to the U.S. gas market.”
Additional takeaways from the report include:
• Natural gas flows to the Northeast from other regions to plummet; net Northeast outflows to total 2.8 Bcf/d by 2023
• The liquids-rich shale plays of Texas and the Midcontinent to contribute about 44 percent of the expected U.S. natural gas supply growth over the next 10 years
• Total U.S. natural gas demand to rise 27% over the next decade, while U.S. supply to climb nearly 38 percent
• Substantial reconfiguration and repurposing of the U.S. natural gas pipeline grid
For more details or to purchase the full report, visit www.bentekenergy.com.